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PodPicksTracker
Week 2 recap
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Ride it to the top rung
Brandon opened his Week 2 show with a confession. In Week 1 he had climbed off his Chris Olave ladder too early and skipped a standard over while holding only the alts. His lesson, stated plainly on air, was to ride the whole escalator or stay off it. Four days later Dalton Schultz caught 12 of 14 targets for 140 yards with Nico Collins out, and every rung from 5 or more receptions through 10 or more cashed. That single ladder paid 70.55 units.
Take it out and the entire site is roughly 35 units in the red for the week. The Anytime TD Show, which ran away with Week 1, went 4-25. One tight end most people would not have started paid for everybody.
Here is how it shook out, plus a few things you will not find on the site.
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The $10 Tailer
Units are how we keep score. Dollars are how it feels. Here is what you would have if you bet $10 on every named pick from each show.
| Brandon's Playground |
+$604.30 |
| Action Network |
+$1.90 |
| Even Money |
-$17.80 |
| Sharp or Square |
-$94.50 |
| Anytime TD Show |
-$141.00 |
Tail all five shows and you would be up $352.90. Tail everyone except Brandon and you would be down $251.40. Season to date, Brandon's Playground has turned $10 a pick into +$639.10 and the TD Show into +$44.30. Everyone else is under water, with Sharp or Square at -$137.30.
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The Fade Report
Twelve times in Week 2, two or more shows landed on the same side. Those pile-ons went 18-17 and lost 0.62 units, which is the first winning record the crowd has put up all season. Betting against every one of them went 17-18 and lost 2.53 units.
The worst of it was Philadelphia. Two shows took the Eagles four different ways, at -6.5, -7 and -7.5. Philadelphia won 24-20 and covered none of them. Texans -2.5 drew three shows and went 0-3 in a 20-6 loss. The crowd earned it back on Bills -4.5 and Jets +4.5, three shows each, 4-0 apiece.
Season running tally: the crowd is 28-32 for -6.52 units and fading it is 32-28 for +1.12. The fade is still profitable, but only barely, and Week 2 took a bite out of it.
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Week 2 Awards
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Hot Mic goes to Brandon (Brandon's Playground)
He went 13-18 and made 61.61 units. Read that again. He lost more bets than he won, by a lot, and still posted the best week this site has recorded, because six of his winners were priced between +180 and +2800. A losing record is fine when the winners pay like that.
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Cold Mic goes to Gallant (Anytime TD Show)
He went 1-7 for -4.90 units. He was the Week 1 Hot Mic at plus 16.40. Two of his longshots, a Steelers receiver at +750 and a Patriots receiver at +950, were in a game where Pittsburgh did not score a touchdown at all.
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Bonehead Read of the Week goes to Sharp or Square
Chad liked Atlanta +2.5 on Tuesday and told listeners to hold out for three. He hunted that half point all week. On Saturday afternoon he finally found +3 in one state and bet it there. Atlanta lost 34-3. He shopped for four days to get an extra half point on a team that scored three points.
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Ladder of the Week goes to Brandon
Six rungs on Dalton Schultz receptions, from 5 or more at +180 all the way up to 10 or more at +2800. Schultz caught 12. Every rung cashed and the top one alone paid 28 units. This award also ran last week. We are not sorry.
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Bad Beat of the Week goes to Brandon
He built the most thorough case any show made this week, that Bo Nix was going to throw it a ton, with Jacksonville allowing the most attempts in the league and last year's meeting running a 70 percent pass rate. He took the over at 32.5 and stacked rungs at 38, 40, 45 and 48. Nix threw 31. Five losing rows, beaten by a single dropback.
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Price Was Right goes to Brandon's Playground
Their season sits at +63.91 units at the prices quoted on air. Grade the exact same picks flat at -110 and they are at -14.70. That is a 78 unit gap, and every bit of it is price rather than picking.
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Survivor Graveyard
Here lie the Tampa Bay picks of Stuckey and Simon. The Bucs were 8.5-point home favorites against Cleveland and lost 23-19. Stuckey said on air that he was just trying to advance rather than get cute, and that he was saving the 49ers in his pocket. He will not need them now.
Simon called the San Francisco pick the coward's play and took Tampa Bay instead. Chad leaned San Francisco. The 49ers won 35-13. Doug has been out since Week 1.
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The Honest Corner
Two weeks in, one show has broken out of the noise. Brandon's Playground sits at +63.91 units against a 90 percent no-edge range of -33.62 to +33.64, a distance of 3.13 standard deviations, and our Skill rating now calls it a clear edge above the price.
The honest footnote is the one from the award above. Grade those same picks flat at -110 and the show is at -14.70, so what has actually been shown is price shopping on ladders and longshots rather than picking better sides. Everyone else is still inside the band. Even Money would need to land outside -12.48 to +12.50 units before its record meant anything at all.
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