PodPicksTracker

Doug

Picks made on Action Network, graded at 1 unit each.

Joint picks are not counted here. They are listed under the show, against the label the show uses.

Showing season to date
Record
8-10
Season to date
Units
-2.72
18 graded picks
ROI
-15%
units per graded pick
CLV plus / minus
5 / 2
where a closing line is on record

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Luck or skill

Would a bettor with no edge land here? The range is where 90% of no-edge results fall at these prices.

Within noise

Season to date

Units
-2.7218 graded picks
No-edge range
-6.59 to +6.61 units90% of no-edge bettors land here
Distance
-0.68 sdz score
Break-even vs actual
52.8% needed · 44.4% hit

Over 18 graded picks, a bettor with no edge would land between -6.59 and +6.61 units nine times in ten. Doug is at -2.72, which is inside that range, so this is not yet evidence of skill.

A no-edge bettor actually loses the vig, so zero is a slightly generous bar.

Sides versus prices

The same results graded at a flat -110. The difference is what the quoted prices were worth.

Quoted prices
-2.72
Season to date
Flat −110
-2.72
18 graded picks
Price edge
0.00
quoted minus flat
Estimated prices
16 plays, -2.63 units
excluding them: -0.09

Graded at a flat −110 the same results are worth -2.72 units, so the prices made no difference.

Where the units come from

Units by bet type. Blank means no picks of that type in view.

HostSideTotalMoneylinePropAnytime TDLadderParlay/Teaser
DougSide -0.72 (8-8)Total -1.00 (0-1)Moneyline -1.00 (0-1)-0.728-8-1.000-1-1.000-1

Week by week

Bars are units won or lost in the week. The gold line is the season to date.

Units by week with the running season total: Week 1 -0.09, season -0.09; Week 2 -0.18, season -0.27; Week 3 -2.00, season -2.27; Week 4 -1.09, season -3.36; Week 5 -0.09, season -3.45; Week 6 -2.00, season -5.45; Week 7 +1.82, season -3.63; Week 8 +0.91, season -2.72Week 1: -0.09 unitsWeek 2: -0.18 unitsWeek 3: -2.00 unitsWeek 4: -1.09 unitsWeek 5: -0.09 unitsWeek 6: -2.00 unitsWeek 7: +1.82 unitsWeek 8: +0.91 unitsSeason to date through week 1: -0.09 unitsSeason to date through week 2: -0.27 unitsSeason to date through week 3: -2.27 unitsSeason to date through week 4: -3.36 unitsSeason to date through week 5: -3.45 unitsSeason to date through week 6: -5.45 unitsSeason to date through week 7: -3.63 unitsSeason to date through week 8: -2.72 units12345678

Every graded pick

Season to date, in the order the picks were made on air.

WkTypePickPriceResultUnitsCLVNote
1SideJets +1.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Side · -110-110Win+0.91
1SideEagles -5.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Side · -110-110Loss-1.00
2SideVikings +4.5Win +0.91Wk 2 · Side · -110 est.→ DK close +4.5-110est.Win+0.91DK close +4.5
2SideSeahawks -3.5Win +0.91Wk 2 · Side · -110 est.→ DK close -3.5-110est.Win+0.91DK close -3.5
2SideTexans -2.5Loss -1.00Wk 2 · Side · -110 est.→ DK close -2.5-110est.Loss-1.00DK close -2.5
2TotalTexans team total overLoss -1.00Wk 2 · Total · -110 est.Line not stated on air. Texans scored 6-110est.Loss-1.00Line not stated on air. Texans scored 6
3Side49ers -8.5Loss -1.00Wk 3 · Side · -110 est.Six-pack and contest pick-110est.Loss-1.00Six-pack and contest pick
3SidePanthers -2.5Loss -1.00Wk 3 · Side · -110 est.→ DK close -2.5 - Six-pack and contest pick-110est.Loss-1.00DK close -2.5Six-pack and contest pick
4SideCommanders +3.5Loss -1.00Wk 4 · Side · -110 est.↓ DK close +5.5 - Six-pack and contest pick, London game-110est.Loss-1.00DK close +5.5Six-pack and contest pick, London game
4SideJaguars +2.5Win +0.91Wk 4 · Side · -110 est.→ DK close +2.5 - Six-pack and contest pick. Bengals were -2.5 at -115-110est.Win+0.91DK close +2.5Six-pack and contest pick. Bengals were -2.5 at -115
4SideBills -6.5Loss -1.00Wk 4 · Side · -110 est.↑ DK est close -7 - Has to be the Bills, going to have to lay it-110est.Loss-1.00DK est close -7Has to be the Bills, going to have to lay it
5SideTexans -7.5 at TitansWin +0.91Wk 5 · Side · -110 est.↓ DK via VegasInsider close -6.5 - Contest pick, Doug's first pick (12:15). Expects it to close 8 or 8.5. Also a leg of the teaser of the week.-110est.Win+0.91DK via VegasInsider close -6.5Contest pick, Doug's first pick (12:15). Expects it to close 8 or 8.5. Also a leg of the teaser of the week.
5MoneylineRams moneyline vs BillsLoss -1.00Wk 5 · Moneyline · -155 est.↑ DK via VegasInsider close -185 - Bet. Says he bet the moneyline (1:06:27). Price not quoted. -155 is an estimate off the -3 (-105) spread and should be checked against DraftKings.-155est.Loss-1.00DK via VegasInsider close -185Bet. Says he bet the moneyline (1:06:27). Price not quoted. -155 is an estimate off the -3 (-105) spread and should be checked against DraftKings.
6SideRams -12.5 vs CardinalsLoss -1.00Wk 6 · Side · -110 est.↑ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -13.5 - Contest pick, first of his two chalk plays (18:13, 1:16:06).-110est.Loss-1.00DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -13.5Contest pick, first of his two chalk plays (18:13, 1:16:06).
6Side49ers -7.5 vs CommandersLoss -1.00Wk 6 · Side · -110 est.→ DK (from Byron) close -7.5 - Contest pick (1:05:15, 1:16:06). Coaching mismatch, bad spot for Washington off overtime. Monday night.-110est.Loss-1.00DK (from Byron) close -7.5Contest pick (1:05:15, 1:16:06). Coaching mismatch, bad spot for Washington off overtime. Monday night.
7SideBears -3 vs PatriotsWin +0.91Wk 7 · Side · -110 est.→ DK via VegasInsider close -3 - Contest pick (9:05, 1:10:00). Likes the Bears a lot, Ben Johnson edge, Patriots line injuries.-110est.Win+0.91DK via VegasInsider close -3Contest pick (9:05, 1:10:00). Likes the Bears a lot, Ben Johnson edge, Patriots line injuries.
7SideFalcons +3 vs 49ersWin +0.91Wk 7 · Side · -110 est.↑ DK via VegasInsider close +2.5 - Contest pick (14:23, 1:10:01). Great spot to fade the undefeated Niners, Mike Evans out.-110est.Win+0.91DK via VegasInsider close +2.5Contest pick (14:23, 1:10:01). Great spot to fade the undefeated Niners, Mike Evans out.
8SideCommanders -5.5 vs EaglesWin +0.91Wk 8 · Side · -110 est.↑ DK via VegasInsider close -6 - Contest pick, named play (11:11, 1:14:08). Anytime you can bet Dan Quinn as a favorite, Eagles locker room lost. No price quoted.-110est.Win+0.91DK via VegasInsider close -6Contest pick, named play (11:11, 1:14:08). Anytime you can bet Dan Quinn as a favorite, Eagles locker room lost. No price quoted.