Brandon
Picks made on Brandon's Playground, graded at 1 unit each.
Joint picks are not counted here. They are listed under the show, against the label the show uses.
Luck or skill
Would a bettor with no edge land here? The range is where 90% of no-edge results fall at these prices.
Within noise
Season to date
- Units
- +2.7531 graded picks
- No-edge range
- -20.10 to +20.10 units90% of no-edge bettors land here
- Distance
- +0.23 sdz score
- Break-even vs actual
- 31.3% needed · 38.7% hit
Over 31 graded picks, a bettor with no edge would land between -20.10 and +20.10 units nine times in ten. Brandon is at +2.75, which is inside that range, so this is not yet evidence of skill.
A no-edge bettor actually loses the vig, so zero is a slightly generous bar.
Sides versus prices
The same results graded at a flat -110. The difference is what the quoted prices were worth.
- Quoted prices
- +2.75
- Season to date
- Flat −110
- -8.08
- 31 graded picks
- Price edge
- +10.83
- quoted minus flat
- Estimated prices
- 1 play, -1.00 units
- excluding them: +3.75
Brandon hit 4 of 20 plus-money picks. Graded at a flat −110 the same results are worth -8.08 units, so +10.83 of the total came from the prices.
Where the units come from
Units by bet type. Blank means no picks of that type in view.
| Host | Side | Total | Moneyline | Prop | Anytime TD | Ladder | Parlay/Teaser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BrandonSide +0.73 (3-2)Total +0.82 (2-1)Prop +4.22 (3-1)Ladder -0.85 (3-12)Parlay/Teaser -2.17 (1-3) | +0.733-2 | +0.822-1 | +4.223-1 | -0.853-12 | -2.171-3 |
Week by week
Bars are units won or lost in the week. The gold line is the season to date.
- Week 1: +2.75 units, season to date +2.75
Every graded pick
Season to date, in the order the picks were made on air.
| Wk | Type | Pick | Price | Result | Units | CLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total | Broncos-Chiefs under 43.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Broncos-Chiefs under 37.5Loss -1.00 | +188 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Broncos-Chiefs under 33.5Loss -1.00 | +330 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Total | Dolphins-Raiders over 39.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Prop | Malik Willis over 36.5 rush ydsWin +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Willis 50+ rush ydsLoss -1.00 | +178 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Willis 70+ rush ydsLoss -1.00 | +574 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Willis 100+ rush ydsLoss -1.00 | +2400 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Prop | Willis anytime rush TDWin +3.40 | +340 | Win | +3.40 | ||
| 1 | Parlay/Teaser | Willis stack: game over, rush yds, rush TDLoss -1.00 | +850 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Prop | Erick All over 1.5 recLoss -1.00 | +145 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | All 2 rec and 20 ydsLoss -1.00 | +230 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | All 3+ recLoss -1.00 | +475 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | All 4+ recLoss -1.00 | +1200 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Cade Otton 6+ recLoss -1.00 | +650 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Otton 7+ recLoss -1.00 | +1280 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Otton 8+ recLoss -1.00 | +2300 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Prop | Chris Olave over 73.5 rec ydsWin +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Olave 100+ rec ydsWin +2.25 | +225 | Win | +2.25 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Olave 120+ rec ydsWin +4.50 | +450 | Win | +4.50 | ||
| 1 | Side | Steelers -3.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Total | Bills-Texans under 44.5Loss -1.00 | -110 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Ladder | Texans -6.5 altLoss -1.00 | +255 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Parlay/Teaser | Texans -6.5 + underLoss -1.00 | +420 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Side | Vikings -1.5Win +0.91↑ +0.5 or better (moved to -2/-2.5) | -110 | Win | +0.91 | +0.5 or better (moved to -2/-2.5) | |
| 1 | Ladder | Vikings by 12.5+Win +4.40 | +440 | Win | +4.40 | ||
| 1 | Parlay/Teaser | Teaser: Jaguars -2.5 + Jets +7.5Win +0.83 | -120 | Win | +0.83 | ||
| 1 | Parlay/Teaser | Four-square parlayLoss -1.00 | +1000est. | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Side | Bears -2.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Side | Buccaneers +3.5Loss -1.00↓ -0.5 (moved to +4) | -110 | Loss | -1.00 | -0.5 (moved to +4) | |
| 1 | Side | Texans +1.5Loss -1.00 | -110 | Loss | -1.00 |