PodPicksTracker

Brandon

Picks made on Brandon's Playground, graded at 1 unit each.

Joint picks are not counted here. They are listed under the show, against the label the show uses.

Record
12-19
Season to date
Units
+2.75
31 graded picks
ROI
+9%
units per graded pick
CLV plus / minus
1 / 1
where a closing line is on record

Luck or skill

Would a bettor with no edge land here? The range is where 90% of no-edge results fall at these prices.

Within noise

Season to date

Units
+2.7531 graded picks
No-edge range
-20.10 to +20.10 units90% of no-edge bettors land here
Distance
+0.23 sdz score
Break-even vs actual
31.3% needed · 38.7% hit

Over 31 graded picks, a bettor with no edge would land between -20.10 and +20.10 units nine times in ten. Brandon is at +2.75, which is inside that range, so this is not yet evidence of skill.

A no-edge bettor actually loses the vig, so zero is a slightly generous bar.

Sides versus prices

The same results graded at a flat -110. The difference is what the quoted prices were worth.

Quoted prices
+2.75
Season to date
Flat −110
-8.08
31 graded picks
Price edge
+10.83
quoted minus flat
Estimated prices
1 play, -1.00 units
excluding them: +3.75

Brandon hit 4 of 20 plus-money picks. Graded at a flat −110 the same results are worth -8.08 units, so +10.83 of the total came from the prices.

Where the units come from

Units by bet type. Blank means no picks of that type in view.

HostSideTotalMoneylinePropAnytime TDLadderParlay/Teaser
BrandonSide +0.73 (3-2)Total +0.82 (2-1)Prop +4.22 (3-1)Ladder -0.85 (3-12)Parlay/Teaser -2.17 (1-3)+0.733-2+0.822-1+4.223-1-0.853-12-2.171-3

Week by week

Bars are units won or lost in the week. The gold line is the season to date.

Units by week with the running season total: Week 1 +2.75, season +2.75Week 1: +2.75 unitsSeason to date through week 1: +2.75 units1

Every graded pick

Season to date, in the order the picks were made on air.

WkTypePickPriceResultUnitsCLVNote
1TotalBroncos-Chiefs under 43.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Total · -110-110Win+0.91
1LadderBroncos-Chiefs under 37.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +188+188Loss-1.00
1LadderBroncos-Chiefs under 33.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +330+330Loss-1.00
1TotalDolphins-Raiders over 39.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Total · -110-110Win+0.91
1PropMalik Willis over 36.5 rush ydsWin +0.91Wk 1 · Prop · -110-110Win+0.91
1LadderWillis 50+ rush ydsLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +178+178Loss-1.00
1LadderWillis 70+ rush ydsLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +574+574Loss-1.00
1LadderWillis 100+ rush ydsLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +2400+2400Loss-1.00
1PropWillis anytime rush TDWin +3.40Wk 1 · Prop · +340+340Win+3.40
1Parlay/TeaserWillis stack: game over, rush yds, rush TDLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Parlay/Teaser · +850+850Loss-1.00
1PropErick All over 1.5 recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Prop · +145+145Loss-1.00
1LadderAll 2 rec and 20 ydsLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +230+230Loss-1.00
1LadderAll 3+ recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +475+475Loss-1.00
1LadderAll 4+ recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +1200+1200Loss-1.00
1LadderCade Otton 6+ recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +650+650Loss-1.00
1LadderOtton 7+ recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +1280+1280Loss-1.00
1LadderOtton 8+ recLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +2300+2300Loss-1.00
1PropChris Olave over 73.5 rec ydsWin +0.91Wk 1 · Prop · -110-110Win+0.91
1LadderOlave 100+ rec ydsWin +2.25Wk 1 · Ladder · +225+225Win+2.25
1LadderOlave 120+ rec ydsWin +4.50Wk 1 · Ladder · +450+450Win+4.50
1SideSteelers -3.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Side · -110-110Win+0.91
1TotalBills-Texans under 44.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Total · -110-110Loss-1.00
1LadderTexans -6.5 altLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Ladder · +255+255Loss-1.00
1Parlay/TeaserTexans -6.5 + underLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Parlay/Teaser · +420+420Loss-1.00
1SideVikings -1.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Side · -110↑ +0.5 or better (moved to -2/-2.5)-110Win+0.91+0.5 or better (moved to -2/-2.5)
1LadderVikings by 12.5+Win +4.40Wk 1 · Ladder · +440+440Win+4.40
1Parlay/TeaserTeaser: Jaguars -2.5 + Jets +7.5Win +0.83Wk 1 · Parlay/Teaser · -120-120Win+0.83
1Parlay/TeaserFour-square parlayLoss -1.00Wk 1 · Parlay/Teaser · +1000 est.+1000est.Loss-1.00
1SideBears -2.5Win +0.91Wk 1 · Side · -110-110Win+0.91
1SideBuccaneers +3.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Side · -110↓ -0.5 (moved to +4)-110Loss-1.00-0.5 (moved to +4)
1SideTexans +1.5Loss -1.00Wk 1 · Side · -110-110Loss-1.00