PodPicksTrackerMatt
Picks made on Brandon's Playground, graded at 1 unit each.
Joint picks are not counted here. They are listed under the show, against the label the show uses.
Showing season to date
Record
18-16
Season to date
Units
+0.38
34 graded picks
ROI
+1%
units per graded pick
CLV plus / minus
11 / 4
where a closing line is on record
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Luck or skill
Would a bettor with no edge land here? The range is where 90% of no-edge results fall at these prices.
Within noise
Season to date
- Units
- +0.3834 graded picks
- No-edge range
- -9.13 to +9.17 units90% of no-edge bettors land here
- Distance
- +0.06 sdz score
- Break-even vs actual
- 52.4% needed · 52.9% hit
Over 34 graded picks, a bettor with no edge would land between -9.13 and +9.17 units nine times in ten. Matt is at +0.38, which is inside that range, so this is not yet evidence of skill.
A no-edge bettor actually loses the vig, so zero is a slightly generous bar.
Sides versus prices
The same results graded at a flat -110. The difference is what the quoted prices were worth.
- Quoted prices
- +0.38
- Season to date
- Flat −110
- +0.38
- 34 graded picks
- Price edge
- 0.00
- quoted minus flat
- Estimated prices
- 29 plays, -0.35 units
- excluding them: +0.73
Graded at a flat −110 the same results are worth +0.38 units, so the prices made no difference.
Where the units come from
Units by bet type. Blank means no picks of that type in view.
| Host | Side | Total | Moneyline | Prop | Anytime TD | Ladder | Parlay/Teaser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MattSide +0.38 (18-16) | +0.3818-16 |
Week by week
Bars are units won or lost in the week. The gold line is the season to date.
- Week 1: +0.73 units, season to date +0.73
- Week 2: -1.18 units, season to date -0.45
- Week 3: -1.18 units, season to date -1.63
- Week 4: +0.73 units, season to date -0.90
- Week 5: -1.09 units, season to date -1.99
- Week 6: +0.82 units, season to date -1.17
- Week 7: -1.18 units, season to date -2.35
- Week 8: +2.73 units, season to date +0.38
Every graded pick
Season to date, in the order the picks were made on air.
| Wk | Type | Pick | Price | Result | Units | CLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Side | Bears -2.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Side | Eagles -4.5Loss -1.00↑ +1 (closed -5.5) | -110 | Loss | -1.00 | +1 (closed -5.5) | |
| 1 | Side | Ravens -3.5Win +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Side | Broncos +2.5Loss -1.00 | -110 | Loss | -1.00 | ||
| 1 | Side | JetsWin +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 2 | Side | Eagles -6.5Loss -1.00→ DK close -6.5 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close -6.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Falcons +1.5Loss -1.00↓ DK close +2.5 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +2.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Jets +4.5Win +0.91↑ DK close +3.5 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +3.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Ravens -8.5Loss -1.00→ DK close -8.5 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close -8.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Colts +6.5Win +0.91→ DK close +6.5 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +6.5 | |
| 3 | Side | Colts +1.5 (contest pick)Win +0.91→ DK close +1.5 - Matt's contest five. He makes it Colts -1.5 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +1.5 | Matt's contest five. He makes it Colts -1.5 |
| 3 | Side | Jets +6.5 (contest pick)Loss -1.00→ DK close +6.5 - Matt's contest five. Rolling into the Jets until the market adjusts | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +6.5 | Matt's contest five. Rolling into the Jets until the market adjusts |
| 3 | Side | Chargers +7.5 (contest pick)Loss -1.00↑ DK est close +7 - Matt's contest five. Most clowned team in the league going into kitchen sink week | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK est close +7 | Matt's contest five. Most clowned team in the league going into kitchen sink week |
| 3 | Side | 49ers -8.5 (contest pick)Loss -1.00Matt's contest five | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | Matt's contest five | |
| 3 | Side | Ravens -2.5 (contest pick)Win +0.91Matt's contest five. Number taken from the stated Wednesday contest lock, his own menu listed Baltimore -3.5 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | Matt's contest five. Number taken from the stated Wednesday contest lock, his own menu listed Baltimore -3.5 | |
| 4 | Side | Raiders +4.5 (contest pick)Win +0.91→ DK est close +4.5 - Matt's contest five. Says the home field flip makes the number wrong | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK est close +4.5 | Matt's contest five. Says the home field flip makes the number wrong |
| 4 | Side | Eagles +2.5 (contest pick)Loss -1.00↓ DK close +3.5 - Matt's contest five. Contest locked at +2.5 with the market at +3. He bet the Eagles earlier in the week and may buy out | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +3.5 | Matt's contest five. Contest locked at +2.5 with the market at +3. He bet the Eagles earlier in the week and may buy out |
| 4 | Side | Giants +1.5 (contest pick)Win +0.91↓ DK close +2.5 - Matt's contest five. Agrees with Brandon's line analysis | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +2.5 | Matt's contest five. Agrees with Brandon's line analysis |
| 4 | Side | Broncos +2.5 (contest pick)Loss -1.00→ DK close +2.5 - Matt's contest five. Thinks this is the week the 49ers injuries catch up | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +2.5 | Matt's contest five. Thinks this is the week the 49ers injuries catch up |
| 4 | Side | Cowboys +2.5 (contest pick)Win +0.91→ DK close +2.5 - Matt's contest five. Market is +3 and he says he would buy in on the side | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +2.5 | Matt's contest five. Market is +3 and he says he would buy in on the side |
| 5 | Side | Titans +6.5 vs Texans (contest pick)Loss -1.00→ DK via VegasInsider close +6.5 - Matt's contest five. Says 6.5 is too many for a winless road favorite | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close +6.5 | Matt's contest five. Says 6.5 is too many for a winless road favorite |
| 5 | Side | Seahawks -2.5 vs 49ers (contest pick)Loss -1.00↑ DK via VegasInsider close -3 - Matt's contest five. Higher on Seattle's quarterback than Brandon and expects 49ers injuries to tell | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close -3 | Matt's contest five. Higher on Seattle's quarterback than Brandon and expects 49ers injuries to tell |
| 5 | Side | Lions -4.5 at Cardinals (contest pick)Win +0.91↑ DK via VegasInsider close -5.5 - Matt's contest five | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close -5.5 | Matt's contest five |
| 6 | Side | Giants +1.5 vs Saints (contest)Loss -1.00→ DK backfill (Statsniper + VegasInsider + SBR) close +1.5 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 47:29. Number from his menu, contest number not restated | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK backfill (Statsniper + VegasInsider + SBR) close +1.5 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 47:29. Number from his menu, contest number not restated |
| 6 | Side | Cardinals +13.5 at Rams (contest)Win +0.91→ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 47:36. Brandon says the Rams are 13.5 in the contest, Matt's menu said 12.5. Contest number used | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 47:36. Brandon says the Rams are 13.5 in the contest, Matt's menu said 12.5. Contest number used |
| 6 | Side | Texans +2.5 vs JaguarsWin +0.91→ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +2.5 - Already bet call, 6:57: I'm going to bet the Texans here, I'm with you. No number said with it, +2.5 was the line under discussion. No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +2.5 | Already bet call, 6:57: I'm going to bet the Texans here, I'm with you. No number said with it, +2.5 was the line under discussion. No price quoted |
| 7 | Side | Falcons +3.5 vs 49ers (contest)Win +0.91↑ DK via VegasInsider close +2.5 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:00 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close +2.5 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:00 |
| 7 | Side | Bengals +2.5 at Ravens (contest)Win +0.91↑ DK via VegasInsider close -3 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:29. Brandon has Bengals +2.5 only as a four-square leg | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close -3 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:29. Brandon has Bengals +2.5 only as a four-square leg |
| 7 | Side | Raiders +4.5 vs Rams (contest)Loss -1.00↑ DK via VegasInsider close +3.5 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:49 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close +3.5 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:49 |
| 7 | Side | Texans -9.5 vs Giants (contest)Loss -1.00↑ DK via VegasInsider close -10 - Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:57 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close -10 | Matt's DK Pick'em contest pick, 51:57 |
| 7 | Side | Panthers -3.5 vs BuccaneersLoss -1.00↓ DK via VegasInsider close -3 - Already-bet rule, 54:18: going to bet Panthers, but not in the contest. No number with it, -3.5 is the line on his menu. Speaker inferred as Matt from context, flagged for Byron. No price read | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close -3 | Already-bet rule, 54:18: going to bet Panthers, but not in the contest. No number with it, -3.5 is the line on his menu. Speaker inferred as Matt from context, flagged for Byron. No price read |
| 8 | Side | Raiders +1.5 (DK Pick'em contest)Win +0.91→ DK via VegasInsider close +1.5 - Matt's contest card. "I am fading the Jets when they are favorites." 55:17 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close +1.5 | Matt's contest card. "I am fading the Jets when they are favorites." 55:17 |
| 8 | Side | Dolphins +7.5 (DK Pick'em contest)Win +0.91↑ DK via VegasInsider close +7 - Matt's contest card. Takes it for the hook. 55:33 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close +7 | Matt's contest card. Takes it for the hook. 55:33 |
| 8 | Side | Broncos +1.5 (DK Pick'em contest)Win +0.91↑ DK via VegasInsider close -1.5 - Matt's contest card. Brandon asserts at 12:50 that Matt is betting Denver, Matt never confirms a bet beyond the contest pick. 55:47 | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK via VegasInsider close -1.5 | Matt's contest card. Brandon asserts at 12:50 that Matt is betting Denver, Matt never confirms a bet beyond the contest pick. 55:47 |