PodPicksTrackerChad
Picks made on Sharp or Square, graded at 1 unit each.
Joint picks are not counted here. They are listed under the show, against the label the show uses.
Showing season to date
Record
13-14-2
2 pushes, 0 voids
Units
-2.35
27 graded picks
ROI
-9%
units per graded pick
CLV plus / minus
9 / 3
where a closing line is on record
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Luck or skill
Would a bettor with no edge land here? The range is where 90% of no-edge results fall at these prices.
Within noise
Season to date
- Units
- -2.3527 graded picks
- No-edge range
- -8.12 to +8.14 units90% of no-edge bettors land here
- Distance
- -0.48 sdz score
- Break-even vs actual
- 52.5% needed · 48.1% hit
Over 27 graded picks, a bettor with no edge would land between -8.12 and +8.14 units nine times in ten. Chad is at -2.35, which is inside that range, so this is not yet evidence of skill.
A no-edge bettor actually loses the vig, so zero is a slightly generous bar.
Sides versus prices
The same results graded at a flat -110. The difference is what the quoted prices were worth.
- Quoted prices
- -2.35
- Season to date
- Flat −110
- -2.17
- 27 graded picks
- Price edge
- -0.18
- quoted minus flat
- Estimated prices
- 25 plays, -3.90 units
- excluding them: +1.55
Chad hit 0 of 1 plus-money pick. Graded at a flat −110 the same results are worth -2.17 units, so the prices cost 0.18 units.
Where the units come from
Units by bet type. Blank means no picks of that type in view.
| Host | Side | Total | Moneyline | Prop | Anytime TD | Ladder | Parlay/Teaser |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChadSide -0.35 (13-12-2)Total -1.00 (0-1)Moneyline -1.00 (0-1) | -0.3513-12-2 | -1.000-1 | -1.000-1 |
Week by week
Bars are units won or lost in the week. The gold line is the season to date.
- Week 1: -0.09 units, season to date -0.09
- Week 2: -4.09 units, season to date -4.18
- Week 3: +0.46 units, season to date -3.72
- Week 4: -2.09 units, season to date -5.81
- Week 5: -1.00 units, season to date -6.81
- Week 6: +4.46 units, season to date -2.35
- Week 7: 0.00 units, season to date -2.35
Every graded pick
Season to date, in the order the picks were made on air.
| Wk | Type | Pick | Price | Result | Units | CLV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Side | JetsWin +0.91 | -110 | Win | +0.91 | ||
| 1 | Moneyline | Texans MLLoss -1.00Price taken from the Thursday dog parlay listing | +100est. | Loss | -1.00 | Price taken from the Thursday dog parlay listing | |
| 2 | Side | Falcons +3Loss -1.00↑ DK close +2.5 - Chad's Choice, bet Saturday at +3 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +2.5 | Chad's Choice, bet Saturday at +3 |
| 2 | Side | Eagles -7Loss -1.00↓ DK close -6.5 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close -6.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Texans -2.5Loss -1.00→ DK close -2.5 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close -2.5 | |
| 2 | Side | Cardinals +4.5Loss -1.00↑ DK close +3.5 - Chad bet it early in the week at +4.5 (said Thu, number confirmed Sun). Simon's Sharp vs Square pick was +4, its own row. | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +3.5 | Chad bet it early in the week at +4.5 (said Thu, number confirmed Sun). Simon's Sharp vs Square pick was +4, its own row. |
| 2 | Side | Falcons +2 (Chad's Choice)Loss -1.00Chad's Choice on Tuesday at +2. His Saturday bet at +3 is a separate row. CAR 34, ATL 3. | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | Chad's Choice on Tuesday at +2. His Saturday bet at +3 is a separate row. CAR 34, ATL 3. | |
| 2 | Side | Jets +3.5Win +0.91Number is the line when he said it, his real ticket may be higher. GB 20, NYJ 17 OT. | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | Number is the line when he said it, his real ticket may be higher. GB 20, NYJ 17 OT. | |
| 2 | Side | Packers -3 (Closing Time trade)Push 0.00Closing Time trade. Told listeners to grab -3. Contest pick at -3.5 is the Official five row. GB won by 3. | -110est. | Push | 0.00 | Closing Time trade. Told listeners to grab -3. Contest pick at -3.5 is the Official five row. GB won by 3. | |
| 3 | Side | Jaguars -2.5 (Chad's Choice)Win +0.82→ DK close -2.5 - Chad's Choice. Trading 55% on Polymarket, converted to -122. Sunday show pulled it from the contest at 3.5 but the bet at 2.5 stands | -122 | Win | +0.82 | DK close -2.5 | Chad's Choice. Trading 55% on Polymarket, converted to -122. Sunday show pulled it from the contest at 3.5 but the bet at 2.5 stands |
| 3 | Side | Dolphins +11.5Loss -1.00Chad said he bet it before the move to 11 | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | Chad said he bet it before the move to 11 | |
| 3 | Side | Browns +3Win +0.91↑ DK close +2.5 - Bet at a sportsbook at 3, now 2.5 most places | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK close +2.5 | Bet at a sportsbook at 3, now 2.5 most places |
| 3 | Side | Buccaneers +2.5Loss -1.00↑ DK close +1.5 - Bet at 2.5, now 1.5. Would have been Chad's Choice | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close +1.5 | Bet at 2.5, now 1.5. Would have been Chad's Choice |
| 3 | Side | Ravens -2.5Win +0.82Bet at 2.5 on Tuesday. Bought at 55 cents on a prediction market, converted to -122. Medium confidence on speaker for the Polymarket purchase. Game in Brazil | -122 | Win | +0.82 | Bet at 2.5 on Tuesday. Bought at 55 cents on a prediction market, converted to -122. Medium confidence on speaker for the Polymarket purchase. Game in Brazil | |
| 3 | Side | Dolphins +11 (Sharp vs Square)Loss -1.00Chad's Sharp vs Square pick, Miami plus 11 (Thursday). A second play to his Tuesday Dolphins +11.5, different number on a different day. No price quoted | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | Chad's Sharp vs Square pick, Miami plus 11 (Thursday). A second play to his Tuesday Dolphins +11.5, different number on a different day. No price quoted | |
| 3 | Side | Commanders +8.5Win +0.91Sunday: taking a piece of Washington at 8.5 given the weather. Medium confidence on speaker. No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | Sunday: taking a piece of Washington at 8.5 given the weather. Medium confidence on speaker. No price quoted | |
| 4 | Side | Cardinals +1.5Loss -1.00↑ DK close -2.5 - I've taken the Cards as one and a half point underdogs, at one prediction market. No price quoted | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close -2.5 | I've taken the Cards as one and a half point underdogs, at one prediction market. No price quoted |
| 4 | Total | Steelers at Browns under 38.5Loss -1.00→ DK close 38.5 - I did play the under 38 and a half. No price quoted | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK close 38.5 | I did play the under 38 and a half. No price quoted |
| 4 | Side | Buccaneers +3.5Win +0.91↑ DK est close +3 - Borderline: I'm personally going to play the Bucs, not for a whole unit, can stay out of the contest. Stated as a bet to come. No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK est close +3 | Borderline: I'm personally going to play the Bucs, not for a whole unit, can stay out of the contest. Stated as a bet to come. No price quoted |
| 4 | Side | Eagles +3.5Loss -1.00Like you, I have not bought out of my position. No number said, Sunday number used. Medium confidence on speaker. No price quoted | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | Like you, I have not bought out of my position. No number said, Sunday number used. Medium confidence on speaker. No price quoted | |
| 5 | Side | Saints +2.5Loss -1.00→ DK via VegasInsider close +2.5 - Go get it, 1:47: hard to find a reason not to back them all week, and at 2.5 in the contest against 1.5 to 2 elsewhere we are still getting the best of the number. Chad's first Saints row of the week. Simon's same-number repeat is saved as a duplicate. | -110est. | Loss | -1.00 | DK via VegasInsider close +2.5 | Go get it, 1:47: hard to find a reason not to back them all week, and at 2.5 in the contest against 1.5 to 2 elsewhere we are still getting the best of the number. Chad's first Saints row of the week. Simon's same-number repeat is saved as a duplicate. |
| 6 | Side | Colts -6.5 vs Titans (Sunday night early number)Loss -1.00→ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -6.5 - Sunday night reaction show 44:19. Says he grabbed it before it moves to 7 and wants the Colts to cover a touchdown. -115 is the price quoted on air for -6.5. Speaker most likely Chad, Simon interjects that it is going to 7 | -115 | Loss | -1.00 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -6.5 | Sunday night reaction show 44:19. Says he grabbed it before it moves to 7 and wants the Colts to cover a touchdown. -115 is the price quoted on air for -6.5. Speaker most likely Chad, Simon interjects that it is going to 7 |
| 6 | Side | Panthers +1.5 at EaglesWin +0.91↑ DK backfill (Statsniper + VegasInsider) close -3 - 39:50. On the Panthers at plus 1.5 so far for a taste. Also tells the airport story of having already bet the Panthers. No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + VegasInsider) close -3 | 39:50. On the Panthers at plus 1.5 so far for a taste. Also tells the airport story of having already bet the Panthers. No price quoted |
| 6 | Side | Cardinals +12.5 at RamsWin +0.91↓ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 - Go get it, 49:09: even at 12.5 you have to play it, after seeing 13.5 at his own book (44:56 if you are picking the number you have to bet Arizona). Speaker inferred as Chad from the screen check exchange. No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 | Go get it, 49:09: even at 12.5 you have to play it, after seeing 13.5 at his own book (44:56 if you are picking the number you have to bet Arizona). Speaker inferred as Chad from the screen check exchange. No price quoted |
| 6 | Side | Bears -3 at FalconsWin +0.91↓ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 - Already bet, 13:37: unfortunately bet into the Bears at minus three, got the worst of the number. Speaker Chad from context (Bears fan). No price quoted | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 | Already bet, 13:37: unfortunately bet into the Bears at minus three, got the worst of the number. Speaker Chad from context (Bears fan). No price quoted |
| 6 | Side | Bears -1.5 at Falcons (Sharp vs Square)Win +0.91→ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 - Sharp vs Square pick, 1:00:18: it pains me, going with the Bears minus 1.5. Different number from his Bears -3 bet, so both count. Host clear this week | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 | Sharp vs Square pick, 1:00:18: it pains me, going with the Bears minus 1.5. Different number from his Bears -3 bet, so both count. Host clear this week |
| 6 | Side | Cardinals +13.5 at RamsWin +0.91→ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 - Already bet, 41:30: I've bet them obviously at 13.5. Different number from his Tuesday go get it at +12.5, so both count. Speaker Chad from context | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close +13.5 | Already bet, 41:30: I've bet them obviously at 13.5. Different number from his Tuesday go get it at +12.5, so both count. Speaker Chad from context |
| 6 | Side | Bears +0.5 at Falcons (sign may be garbled)Win +0.91↑ DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 - Already bet, 25:33: bet them at three and bet them at plus a half, got the best of the number. Plus a half may be a slip for minus a half, the contest number. Different number from his -3 and -1.5 rows. No price quoted. Flagged | -110est. | Win | +0.91 | DK backfill (Statsniper + SBR) close -1.5 | Already bet, 25:33: bet them at three and bet them at plus a half, got the best of the number. Plus a half may be a slip for minus a half, the contest number. Different number from his -3 and -1.5 rows. No price quoted. Flagged |
| 7 | Side | Lions -3 vs Packers (Sharp vs Square)Push 0.00↑ DK via VegasInsider close -3.5 - Already bet, Thu 43:08: I bet the Lions I think at minus three. Also his Sharp vs Square pick at 1:05:51, going with Detroit -3. Same host, same number, one play. No price quoted. | -110est. | Push | 0.00 | DK via VegasInsider close -3.5 | Already bet, Thu 43:08: I bet the Lions I think at minus three. Also his Sharp vs Square pick at 1:05:51, going with Detroit -3. Same host, same number, one play. No price quoted. |